There is a lot of bad information about the real estate market that is being given right now… And in most cases it’s being given as opinion, rather than backed up by facts. 

For the last year and a half, I have seen countless people with rather large followings talking about how the market was going to crash. In all honesty, at what point do they have to atone for their lies, pandering and misleading? The best way to sum these guys up is equating them to the saying that a broken clock is right twice a day. 

Yes there are SOME markets around the country that have gone down. But as a whole, the Real Estate Market just took some of its biggest blows and is going to come out of 2023 looking… Okay. Let’s take a look at some of the things that these market crashers are claiming are lies. We will examine the issue and then see what the stats say. 

As we look at this all, remember that Real Estate is local. What’s going on in one market does not mean that it will go on in another market. Talking about the national real estate market is as dumb as talking about the national average temperature. 

Real quick. My name is Jeff Chubb and I am a retired investment banker turned real estate agent that has sold more than a 1,000 homes. If you have real estate questions, then I am here to help. 

If you have been around the block this year, then most likely you have heard the term “date the rate and marry the house”. Now this guy in particular is saying that this is a massive lie and that it’s a dumb concept. But let’s look at this a little further. 

If someone says this to you, then they are implying that you buy the house today and lock in the price of the house. Then as rates go down, you will be able to refinance the house and essentially have your cake and eat it too. 

If rates don’t come down and god forbid go up, then you have locked your payment at the lower rate and look like a genius. 

If rates go down, then you refinance and well… look like a genius. 

The only way this scenario doesn’t work out for you is if home prices go down. Which to be clear is a possibility if you live in some areas of the country. Not great advice if you live in Austin, Texas where housing prices have gone down 8.2% year to date or New Orleans where prices are down 9%. We will go into home prices going down in a couple of moments… But for the vast majority of homebuyers… This was some pretty solid advice. 

It’s been a pretty big move for folks who bought back in October at 8%. At 8% on a $500,000 note, that is a principal and interest payment of $3,668. That payment goes down to $3,160 at 6.5%. That’s real money. 

But keep in mind that there are costs that are associated with refinancing a mortgage. So refinancing each time rates go down a small amount does not make sense. The rule of thumb is 1% or more for a rate decrease. 

The naysayers were always saying that it’s all about IF rates go down. Well they did. Now it’s just a matter of how much they will go down. I don’t see them going below the high 5% level, but that’s just me. 

So they all told you that Date the Rate was a load of crap. It happened. Rates went down. So I guess they are the ones that were full of it on that one. 

As this guy was grasping for straws talking about how Dating the Rate is a lie. He mentioned that great, your house payment goes down $500 a month, but your cost of owning a home will go up as things like property taxes and insurance get more expensive. 

Hey guy… Rent prices go up and up and up. There is no such thing as locking in your rental rate for 30 years. Don’t take my word for it… Take a look at this chart. 

You see when things like property taxes and insurance go up… Landlords just pass those costs along to the consumer. In other words, unless you are living in your parents basement or are living in a situation where you don’t pay anything… Then it’s really you, the tenant that is paying for the higher insurance and property tax. 

Plus there is the added insult to injury that you as a renter can’t write off the property tax like I can as a homeowner. 

So let’s talk about home prices. Because the Market Crash click bait fellas love talking about market prices. But rarely do they really bring the receipts. It is a fact that there are some towns in the United States which are seeing year over year housing price declines. It’s also a fact that it’s the exception. Not the rule. 

First, month over month pricing data doesn’t matter. Housing prices follow a trend with there being yearly seasonal peaks in pricing with seasonal low points as well. So the only stat that really matters is the Year over Year data. 

Let’s do a slow scroll of this data chart of the 50 largest metro areas housing markets and examine a couple of towns. 

Yes, like I said earlier, home prices have gone down in Austin, Texas and New Orleans. NExt would be San Antonio Texas which has seen prices go down 3% this year. Then Jacksonville, Florida which is at negative 1.5%. Then Memphis, Houston and Dallas at negative .9% year over year. 

Should we go over all the metros with negative home prices this year? Fine. Phoenix at negative .3%, Sacramento at -.1%, Las Vegas at -.4%% and Nashville at -.3%. Oh, well that didn’t take long… The real pain would have been if I went through and listed all the metro areas that had housing price gains Year over Year. Here is a fun fact. Only 11 out of the 50 metro areas had negative pricing. And of that 11, only 4 saw home prices go down by more than 1% this year. 

A lot of people sat on the sidelines because of a lot of bad information this year. The majority of folks who sat on the sidelines didn’t lose 11.3% of their buying power like a buyer in Hartford, Connecticut would have… But all in all, 33 of the 50 had home price gains of 1% or more. 

So a year and a half of beating the market is going to crash drum… Only to have the market… Not. Crash. But now they are chirping about how prices are going to go down because we could possibly enter a recession in 2024. 

Okay, so what’s the correlation between recession and housing prices? Housing prices have gone down in 2 out of the last 6 recessions. TWO. 

We all know and remember the slaughterfest of 2008. But the only other time that housing prices went down in a recession was back in 1991 when they went down 1.9%.  

(YAWN)... That seems like a rather non event. 

So based on these stats, can we agree that it is a fact that housing prices and recessions are not correlated? 

Now. Let’s do my favorite. How they talk about housing prices are going down because sales levels have hit a 13 year low. Sales levels and prices are not necessarily correlated. This year has proved that. The amount of supply of houses on the market and prices are however. 

Here is some Massachusetts data to help prove that point. 

Here is a chart of declining year over year sales.

That is 29 consecutive months of year over year sales declines in Massachusetts. 

And this is the chart for year over year pricing in Massachusetts. Yes, sales have been down for 29 consecutive months while prices have been up for 42. And for the record, the 43rd month was a decrease of .06% and was in May of 2020. Essentially these are sales right in the beginning of the Covid Lockdown. 

Again, this is Massachusetts pricing levels… But there is zero correlation between sales levels and pricing. Look at what happened with House for sale Quincy pricing in 2008 and 2009 and compare that to a snapshot of our inventory levels. 

Go find these numbers in your area. Because that is going to be your telling sign of the market. 

We have 4.4 fewer houses on the market compared to 2009 and nearly 5 times fewer than compared to 2010. 

Again. Myth busted. It’s the amount of supply on the market that correlates with housing prices. Not the amount of sales. 

Here is the proper advice. Buy when you are ready. Stop trying to time the market. You will lose. Buy a house that you can afford. Don’t stretch. Buy for a longer period of time. Think at least 5 to 7 years. Buy a house that you can grow into. In other words, if you are expecting a couple kids in the next couple of years… Then don’t buy a two bedroom house. 

All of my contact information is in the description below or you can reach out to me at with questions. 

Until next time.


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