Massachusetts Real Estate Market Update for March 2024

YOUR Massachusetts Real Estate Market Update for March 2024

Two markets that saw double digit year over year pricing increases… And one market that saw “only” (ha) Single Digit price gains. Then there is the market that broke a 26 month year over year unit sales streak…

If you are looking to hear about the Massachusetts Real Estate Market data for Single Family Homes, Condos and Multi-Family properties… Then you are in the right place.

This market is confusing. It’s red hot. But yet there are signs that inventory is starting to grow. Interest rates aren’t going down, but yet home buyers are flooding the market. 

It’s going to be a crazy Spring market. It’s not a matter of if anymore. It’s just a matter of how crazy. Just in the last couple weeks, a house listed at $700,000 that sold for $872,000. A house listed at $800,000 that sold for well over one hundred thousand dollars over asking price. I could cite example after example. 

The big takeaway is that the FED CAN’T lower interest rates. If they do, the cost of housing will skyrocket and that will only lead to inflation. I hate to be the crazy one in the room, but the FED in my opinion needs to be increasing rates. There I said it. Don’t shoot the messenger. 

Real quick, my name is Jeff Chubb and I am a recovering Investment banker, turned real estate agent that has sold more than a 1,000 homes. If you are planning on buying or selling a home now or in the future, then it would be a pleasure to speak with you. 

Let’s start with Single Families

In February of 2024, we saw 1,805 Single Family homes sell for an average sales price of $725 thousand dollars. 

Another month where you can barely see the dot from last year. We were SO close.. AGAIN!

The 1,805 Single Families that sold in February was only 1% off of last year’s sales numbers when we saw 1,824 homes sell. 

Last month we talked about how the first chapter of sales numbers was going to suggest that this year was going to look a lot like last year…. Well chapter two has been written and the story continues. 

Like we have said more times then we can count … Sales and prices are not two factors that work in tandem. We know from last year that diminished home sales will not affect home values… Home values are tied to the inventory levels. Not sales levels. 

This is not looking good for the crowd that is praying that home prices are going to go down. We ended 2023 with a 6.4% year over year appreciation rate. 

Two months down and we have now seen a year over year price increase of 9.8%. I will say that again. Year to date, we have seen home prices go up by 9.8% comparing the first two months of 2023 to 2024. Wow.

Okay. Onto the yearly sales comparison levels.

As we have already said… Our home sales levels are pretty much on par with what we saw last year. 

These depressed sales levels are what we need to consider the new norm for as long as homeowners are handcuffed into their extremely low interest rates. 

Aside from 2023, we would need to go back to February of 2010 to see this general level of sales. 

SO close, but no cigar… Again. The streak progresses to 31 consecutive months of sales declines. I really thought we had this streak broken this month. It’s not a matter of if it happens, but when this streak comes to a close this year. 

Closing in on nearly 3 years of sales declines. Just insane. But as we know… That doesn’t matter because sales levels and pricing are not intertwined. 

31 consecutive months of sales declines while we have had 44 consecutive months of price increases. 

I just don’t see any way this trend comes to an end this year. Which is just insane to think about. Not one month in the nearly last 4 years have we seen year over year prices go down. 

Prices are going to continue to go up and up and up because of all this inflation. At this point I am worried they are going to go up too much. Too fast again. And this will lead to additional rate HIKES. You heard that right. Rate hikes! 

Inventory levels are up, but I wouldn’t call this a surge of any kind. But yes, our inventory levels at the end of February in 2024 was a four year high. 

Our inventory levels are up 10.7% from February of 2023 when our sales levels were last at this level. 

But we still have 6.3 times less inventory than when compared to February in 2010. 

This increasing inventory levels are a trend that we need to keep our eyes on. 

The year over year graph really gives you a better picture as to what we are talking about in regards to inventory growth. 

We started the year with the second lowest inventory level in history. We are now at the fourth lowest inventory level in history. Inventory levels are moving up, but at the end of the day… We are still at historical lows. 

Why does inventory matter so much? It’s because inventory levels and prices are what are correlated with one another. 

As of today, we have 82 more homes on the market then the same time in 2023 and 807 more houses on the market then we did back in 2022. 

Quick recap… So sales in the Single Family market were off by 1% while inventory was up by 10.7% when compared to last year's numbers. 

Last month’s update we were saying how it was extremely similar to the conditions that we saw in 2023. Well this month, it's pretty similar, but the inventory levels could be a bit of a wild card.