Massachusetts Real Estate Market Update 1/8/2024
YOUR Massachusetts Real Estate Market Update for the week of January 8th
I hope you had an amazing New Year… Because the Massachusetts real estate market looks to be jumping out of the gate.
In this video we will go over the Single-Family and condo markets in the state of Massachusetts. And we will also do a quick interest rate update… And we will also talk about some relevant current events.
Hi I am Jeff Chubb – A recovering Investment Banker turned Real Estate Agent that has sold more than a 1,000 homes. If you have any questions about the real estate market, then know I am here to help.
The end of December is always slow. With the week between Christmas and New Years being painfully slow. So it makes sense that not a whole lot has gone on in the market.
Less listings. Less buyer demand. Real boring stuff.
Well the market tends to take off right after the New Year and it looks like this year will be no different. And my belief of the market ramping up quickly on the buyer side is already being seen… And felt.
Spring buyers, there is a huge opportunity of getting out in front of the Spring market. If I am reading the tea leaves correctly, then you could save yourself 10s of thousands of dollars. Not to mention… If this Spring Market turns out like the data says, then you are going to need more time to find a house anyway…
Quick wildcard heads up is snow. If we end up getting a lot of snow this year, then that will push out the Spring Market Surge of activity.
As a quick note, I am looking to buy houses. Let me know if there are any houses that you are aware of that need a lot of Tender Love and Care. The uglier, then the better!
Let’s get into it all and jump into the Single-Family market stats.
It’s been awhile since we last talked. And since that time, inventory did exactly what we expected and continued to fall. The Fall drawdown is over and this is generally when we start seeing some ups and downs in inventory levels, but ultimately where it stays rather level.
There are now 2,989 single family homes on the market in the state of Massachusetts. That is nearly a 22% decrease in the amount of homes for buyers to look at in just a matter of 28 days.
We should ultimately stay in this plus or minus 3 thousand unit band for the next two months or so. It’s generally around the end of February when we start seeing more inventory come on the market.
The first week of 2024 looks to be following the trend of the first week of 2023 with a little spike of inventory. We were only 22 units short of equaling the inventory levels of 2021.
But buyers today have 763 more houses to look at when compared to the same time in 2022. And 433 fewer houses to look at when compared to 2023.
I have my predictions video coming out in a couple days, but ultimately I don’t see inventory levels getting any better this year in a decreasing interest rate environment. Buyer beware.
New listing activity fell a bit as we headed out of the 2024 gate.
There were 534 Single Family homes that came on the market this week. This was 74 or 12.2% less units than the same week last year when 608 Single Family homes came on the market.
The 4 week rolling average is 320 units. But that data would include the really slow last two weeks when 220 and 133 new listings came on the market.
Under agreements however went toe to toe with 2023.
We had 477 homes go under agreement last week which was 1% or 5 fewer units than the same week last year when 482 single family homes went under agreement.
We have talked about it in past weeks. But I think this continues to show the boost to the market from the interest rates coming down to the 6.5% range from the 2023 high of the 8% range.
The four week rolling average is 497 units. What’s interesting is that this takes into account the 306 units from two weeks ago and the 405 units that would have been Christmas week. This is stronger under agreement activity than I would have expected.
So when compared to last year's market… New listings were down by 12.2% while under agreements were down by 1%.
There were 380 Single Family homes that closed last week for an average sales price of $781 thousand dollars and a median sales price of $608 thousand dollars. Sales levels compared to the same week last year were down by 9.7% as there were 421 Single mily homes that sold this week last year for an average price of $637k.
Months of inventory. This is how we determine what type of market we are in. 0 to 5 months is considered a sellers’ market with the closer to 0 you get… The more aggressive a seller’s market.
This week Months of inventory ticked up to 1.17 months from last week's 1.13 months. The 1.17 months this week is compared to the 1.11 months this week last year.
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Now onto the Condo market…
The Fall drawdown is done in the condo market as well. But talk about a bounce back in inventory. We will get into that a lot more in a couple seconds.
We have 1,771 condos on the market as of Monday. This is a 195 unit increase from last week. Currently, there are 19.2% fewer condos on the market today than 28 days ago.
We ended the year with inventory levels pretty much running even with 2022. But as we start off this year, inventory looks to be wanting to play cat and mouse with the 2023 levels. We are going to talk about New listings in a moment because that is the difference maker right now.
We now have only 21 fewer units on the market today than in 2023 and 262 more units then compared to the inventory levels of 2022. 2021 was a bad year for comparison purposes as Covid beat the living daylights out of the Condo market. It wasn’t until about March of 2021 when you really started to see the condo market get its legs back underneath it.
When it comes to new listings, the first week of 2024 is off to a strong start.
There were 400 condos that came last week with the four week rolling average of 148 condos.
We listed 32 or 8.7% more condos this week than the same week last year when 368 condos came on the market.
While new listings came in hot, under agreements fell short of last year's numbers in the condo market. This week we put 219 units under agreement. This 219 units was 96 units or 30.5% shy of last year's numbers when we put 315 condos under agreement. There are a lot of amazing Homes For Sale in South Boston.
The four week rolling average is 207 units.
So 8.7% more listings that came on the market when compared to this week last year while selling 30.5% fewer condos.
There were 143 condos that sold this week for an average sales price of $704 thousand dollars and a median sales price of $523 thousand dollars. This same week last year there were 264 condos that sold. So sales levels were down by 45.8%.
Months of Inventory had a big move to 1.69 months from last week’s 1.49 months. This is compared to the months of inventory levels of 2.08 months this week last year.
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Time to talk about Interest rates… Because it’s been awhile!
Rates have been slowly progressing in the wrong direction. They are still down over a ⅓ of a point from last month, but they have been slowly but surely creeping.
Personally, I am thinking it’s because of strong economic data and the financial markets starting to think a FED rate cut in March is not as certain as they expected.
It’s an unpopular opinion, but falling interest rates are not necessarily good for the housing market. Not with supply being this constrained.
If rates fall sharply then you are going to see some huge spikes in demand as well as pricing. Ultimately, I think this is a good thing for potential home buyers. The 10 or 15 offer scenarios with no home inspection and nose bleed prices are no fun… I can tell you that from experience.
Be sure to check out the video that I released earlier this week that reviews what happened in 2023 for the Massachusetts Real Estate market. There are a lot of amazing Homes For Sale Boston Back Bay, you should check them out!
I have a lot of great appreciation and depreciation videos coming. PLUS my 2024 market predictions video which I will be releasing next week. Be on the lookout for those videos and let me know if you have any ideas or questions about different market and market stats.
Very quickly, I just wanted to turn your attention to a different real estate market. The commercial market.
Residential real estate prices are not going down in 2024… But it’s a very different story for Commercial Real Estate. I have said it before, but let’s say it again. If you are looking for a market crash, then look no further. It’s here.
Office space vacancy rate in the U.S. has reached its highest level since 1979 with a fourth quarter vacancy rate of 19.6%. Nearly 20% of all office space is not occupied. That is an astounding number.
People that are looking for housing market relief by getting more supply on the market, then look no further. City and state governments will need to step in and cut red tape and possibly provide some financial incentives, but your answer is staring at you in all the empty buildings that dot your cityscape.
Want to talk about your personal real estate needs?
Again, it’s Jeff Chubb. Whether you are looking to buy or sell a home in the next 9 or 90 days, then I would love to chat with you and find out about your real estate goals.
And if you know of anyone that is thinking about buying or selling a house, then I truly appreciate you passing along my information.
You can visit YouTubeRealEstateAgent.com or find all of my information in the description below!
Until next time.