Massachusetts Market Update for 10-31-2023

YOUR Massachusetts Real Estate Market Update for the week of October 30th

Is this the inflection point for the Fall inventory that we have been waiting for? What does this mean for the Spring Market? And let’s talk about the American Dream being dead. 

In this video we will go over the Single-Family and condo markets in the state of Massachusetts. And we will also do a quick interest rate update as well as talk about some very relevant current events. 

Hi I am Jeff Chubb – A recovering Investment Banker turned Real Estate Agent that has sold more than a 1,000 homes. If you have any questions about the real estate market, then know I am here to help.

And by the way. If you are an investor who is looking for off market houses, then reach out as I would love to hear what your buy boxes are. We get off market opportunities each and every day and I would love to play a little game of matchmaking. 

Just as a heads up, these off market opportunities are cash or hard money only investments. No conventional financing is allowed. 

Let’s get into it all and jump into the Single-Family market stats.

Another week and another inventory high for the year. But have we hit the peak? There are currently 4,733 single family homes on the market in the state of Massachusetts. This is one more unit than last week. This means inventory is 5.9% higher than it was 28 days ago. 

I feel pretty confident that this week will be the high point for our inventory levels for 2023. If so, then that’s kind of crazy. We never broke the 5,000 unit mark for the entire year. 

And if this is the case. If inventory is done growing, then it we can start to form some educated opinions on what the Spring market in 2024 will look like. Now the next question will be… How severe will the Fall inventory drawdown be? We saw inventory decrease by 33% from this week in 2022 to the last week of December in 2022. That number was a 47% inventory decrease in 2021! 

There is no doubt that our current market is the best buying opportunity that we have seen in all of 2023. You want the best deal on a house? Then now is the time to buy. I was talking with a loan officer yesterday and they started the process for 9 loans last week. Not one of them had a sales price over the asking price. 

It’s old news that we surpassed the inventory levels of 2021. But look at how our inventory levels this year have leveled off. As where in 2021 and 2022 they were decreasing. 

We now have 684 fewer houses on the market today than we did this time last year. To put this in perspective… Last week that number was 863. 

But look at this year and 2021! We now have 510 more single family homes on the market today than today last year.  This is up from 271 just last week. 

New listings did what we thought they would do. And that is going to be the pattern from now until the end of the year. There were 840 Single Family homes that came on the market this week. This week's new listings numbers were 117 units or 12.2% off last year when we listed 957 Single Family homes. That was a bigger difference then I would have expected. 

The 4 week rolling average is 964 units. We are going to be behind the 4 week rolling average for pretty much the rest of the year. So I am not too worried about this data point. 

We had 860 homes go under agreement which was 21.5% less than the same week last year when 1,095 single family homes went under agreement. 

This was a shocking number as it broke out of that 10 to 15% range that we had been seeing in the last 6 weeks. But when I look at the data for last year, I think this week was an outlier week where we just had an abnormal burst of activity. 

Not worried about this big decrease in under agreements… Yet. 

The four week rolling average is 863 units. So we were slightly below the 4 week rolling average. 

So when compared to last year's market… New listings were off by 12% while under agreements were off by 21%..

There were 734 Single Family homes that closed last week for an average sales price of $789 thousand dollars and a median sales price of $620 thousand dollars. Sales levels compared to the same week last year were down by a crazy  34% as there were 1,112 Single Family homes that sold this week last year. 

Months of inventory. This is how we determine what type of market we are in. 0 to 5 months is considered a sellers’ market with the closer to 0 you get… The more aggressive a seller’s market.

This week Months of inventory jumped to 1.68 months from last week's 1.59 months. The 1.68 months this week is compared to the 1.51 months this week last year. 

Months of inventory continue to tick up. This is the best buying opportunity of 2023. If you want a value on a house. Then between now and the end of the year is where you are going to find it. 

Real quick, here is my shameless plug… I just wanted to mention that if you are thinking about buying or selling a home, then it would be a true pleasure to help!

Now onto the Condo market…

We have 2,612 condos on the market as of Monday. Inventory fell in the Condo market. Slightly. But it fell. Inventory decreased by 9 units with there being 4.7% more condos on the market today then 28 days ago. 

Even though inventory went down, it did not go down as much as it did in the prior years. The inventory gap continues to tighten. We now have only 167 fewer condos on the market today than at the same time last year. 

And it’s even tighter when you compare it to the 2021 market. We now have only 153 fewer condos on the market than the same time in 2021. Just two weeks ago that was a 416 unit difference. 

Just like the Single Family market, what happens here in the next handful of weeks is going to the start of painting the picture for the condo market in 2024.

There were 349 condos that came on the market with a four week rolling average of 450 condos. 

This was a bit of a surprise. We really fell off of last year's pace here. We listed 416 condos this week last year. So our condo new listing inventory was off by 16%. 

Under Agreements were an even bigger surprise. But like the Single Family, this week last year just had a big bump in activity. This week we put 320 condos under agreement which is 20.6% below last year's numbers when 403 condos went under agreement. 

The four week rolling average is 367 units.

So 16% fewer listings that came on the market when compared to this week last year while selling 20.6% fewer condos. 

There were 313 condos that sold this week for an average sales price of $650 thousand dollars and a median sales price of $520,000 thousand dollars. This same week last year there were 462 condos that sold. So sales levels were off by an astounding 32%.

Months of Inventory jumped to 2.26 months from last week’s 2.16 months. 

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Time to talk about Interest rates… 

For all intents and purposes… Last week was a victory. Rates moved sideways! At this point… I will take sideways! 

I think a very interesting point to take away is how ARMs are starting to become more attractive. 

But I read a quote… “The higher we go, the closer we are to the top.”. I am pretty sure that guy could find a ray of sunshine in pitch darkness… But in this case, there might be some kernel of logic behind it. 

The FED hikes short term rates which filter through to longer term rates like mortgages. And we have seen our long term rates adjust without any FED rate manipulation. And in the past couple weeks the FED has increasingly said the sharper rise in longer term rates are evidence that they don’t need to hike short term rates anymore. 

They have also said that they are seeing some softening in the economy that isn’t in the data numbers yet. What essentially this means is that it is extremely likely that they will hold tight on raising rates on Wednesday. They don’t hike rates. The market is doing it for them. 

How I am reading this is that we are going to get some rate stability moving forward. Stability is a good thing. And don’t be fooled into thinking that the FED holding rates means that they will be lowering them anytime soon. It’s not going to happen… Proof to that reason was in last week's inflation data that came in higher than expected. 

So the American Dream of homeownership is dead. That is what I heard someone a lot smarter than me say last week at a conference. That statement really got me thinking. 

I think the American Dream is dying. Not quite dead. But I also don’t see any lifelines or rays of hope that will bring it back. I thought the higher rates would push some of these big investors out of the real estate market… And I think they have helped, but I am beginning to realize that they are here to stay. 

These big investors with an unlimited amount of funds are not leaving the real estate market anytime soon. They are still buying. More carefully and at bigger discounts, but they are still buying. 

But here is what that does to the other side of that coin. It’s built constant and consistent built in demand. If the market slides a bit, then they will be there to buy… And buy quickly. These big and small investors have created a pricing floor for the real estate market. 

I know this is something that the market is going to crash hopeful will not want to hear. 

But yes, the American Dream of Homeownership is dying. It’s being forced out and over shadowed by big… and small business. Those who are already bought a house will do well and will be able to play the real estate game for the rest of their life… 

But those who don’t already own… It’s going to become harder and harder to buy. Until we have a country of renters. And come on… That does make sense. We live in a world where people don’t even own their $1,500 iPhone. The value they see is in not owning the thing, but being able to get the new one every year… As a population we have been conditioned to be consumers… not savers. The Dead American Dream makes a lot of sense when you put it in that context. 

Want to talk about your personal real estate needs?

Whether you are looking to buy in the next 9 or 90 days, then I would love to chat with you and find out about your real estate goals.

And if you are thinking about possibly selling, then we can help you traditionally or even offer you a cash offer on your house for a seamless and stress free sales process. No matter what your situation, we can help you get it done. 

You can also visit YouTubeRealEstateAgent.com and fill in your info then I will reach out to you!

Questions or comments about the market data?

Drop me a line in the comments section below. You take the time to watch the video, so I will always take the time to answer.

So until next time.