Home Prices are Going Down

Home Prices are Going Down

Home prices are going down and they are about to go down by a lot… but it’s probably not what you think. 

In this video, we are going to talk about how in the next 6 months you will hear a lot about how home prices are down by X percent from their peak. We will also talk about the pitfalls to watch out for. 

Real quick, my name is Jeff Chubb and I am a recovering Investment banker, turned real estate agent that has sold more than a 1,000 homes. We get calls, texts and emails from folks just like you who are looking to make a move in the Boston Metro area and I absolutely love it! So whether you are looking to make a move in the next 9 or 90 days… It doesn’t matter. Give us a call, shoot us an email or stop by YouTubeRealEstateAgent.com and fill in your information and we will reach out to you! 

Home prices are currently down 1.37% from their peak in June.. With a lot further to fall. Let’s talk about this junk statistic. 

Yes, as you can see here. Home prices are down in the month of July from the peak in June. It’s true! But take a look at what happened last year. How about the year before that as well? As you can see, home prices climb in the first half of the year while peaking in June and then retreat in the second half of the year while finding a bottom in October and November. 

Last year in 2022, the statement you were getting from the expert class was that “Home prices are down by whatever percent they wanted to champion FROM THEIR PEAK”. The from their peak was the very important part of that statement. Here in Massachusetts, that number was 15% off their peak in 2022. 

But I ask you this. Why was it that we didn’t hear any of this home prices going down narrative in 2021? After all, home prices were off by nearly 10% from their peak in 2021. Is it because you would have sounded like a moron if you started talking about home prices were going down in 2021? 

So what changed from 2021 to 2022? It was the assumption that the housing market would collapse under the aggressive FED rate hikes. And with that collapse, so would pricing. Fifteen years later and the 2008 housing crash is still entrenched in people’s heads… That once in a lifetime credit event. That housing market caused Recession and near depression. 

Yes, it was the narrative that changed. It was people trying to get out in front of a possible situation to sound like the smartest guy or gal in the room. But they didn’t have their money where their mouth was. They weren’t shorting the housing market. And isn’t that the case of so many of these frauds.. I mean experts? 

Housing prices haven’t gone down at least here in Massachusetts. You have some pockets around the country where home prices have gone down, but for the most part… Housing prices have continued to go up. Going up at much lower levels… And sustainable levels nonetheless.

What did happen is that the number of sales were greatly reduced. Sales levels have been cut by about a third. But that’s okay. We are at the sales levels of 2011. Reduced sales and price corrections don’t necessarily correlate. If you have reduced sales and swelling inventory… Then yes, you will get price corrections. But in this case we got reduced sales and even more reduced levels of inventory. 

Get ready for the 2023 version of the housing prices going down narrative. Because it’s coming to a TV, Newspaper or Youtube channel near you. You’ll start hearing about how housing prices are retreating in about... two months or so. And the chorus will get louder and louder as the months march on. 

So what should you be on the lookout for? If the article or reporter starts talking about how housing prices are down from their peak, then save your valuable time and move on. It’s a junk stat. What you want to be on the lookout for is year over year stats. 

That’s what matters. The question you want to know is whether housing prices this month dipped below the levels of the same month last year. Not a month to month comparison. Because as you can see from this chart… The housing market is cyclical. 

It’s possible that we could see some year over year home price decreases with the higher interest rates and the slowdown in sales. I actually did this video that has data from the first 5 and a half months of 2023 and it was shocking at some of the corrections we have seen. I am not saying it can’t happen… Or even that it won’t happen. Did you want to see all Quincy Homes For Sale ?

What I am saying is that the hysterics from the so-called expert class is a load of crock. Because all they cite are housing prices compared to peak pricing. 

If you have questions about the health of your market, then I invite you to reach out. Feel free to post a comment below or privately shoot me an email. There is a ton of disinformation out there when it comes to the real estate market… So I am happy to help provide some clarity. 

And if you are looking to make a move in the next 9 or 90 days, then I would love to chat with you. Would love to hear about your goals. While I personally only serve the Massachusetts market, I have highly qualified associates who can help you no matter where you are in the country. 

All of my contact information is below. You can also reach out to me at YouTubeRealEstateAgent.com and fill out your contact information and then I will reach out to you. 

Until next time.