Boston, MA Housing Market in Trouble?

Boston, MA Crash?

A video on YouTube popped up on my feed titled Boston, MA in Trouble? That one put me back… Immediately started thinking, what did I miss? Which led me down the rabbit hole on sales data and analyzing one of the biggest cities in the country. Let’s dig into this. 

But real quick. My name is Jeff Chubb and I am a retired investment banker, turned real estate agent that has sold more than a 1,000 homes. I get calls, text and emails from folks just like you who are looking to make a move. So, whether you are looking to buy in the next 9 or 90 days, then it doesn’t matter. I would be honored to help you. You can find my information in the description below or visit YouTubeRealEstateAgent.com and fill in your info and then we will reach out to you. 

First, I should point out that the channel and the real estate agent on it was from Maryland. And he was interviewing another agent in the Boston market. And while scrolling through Maryland's agent videos… I got the sense he was into click bait and panic porn.

Let’s get going with the data, but spoiler alert… The Boston Market crashed… But probably not how you think. 

So let’s take a look at a Quarter over Quarter analysis on the sales, average prices and the inventory levels in Boston. 

In the first quarter of 2023, Boston sold 721 condos for an average sales price of $1,044,914. And at the end of the first quarter of 2022 there were 787 condos on the market.

This is compared to the first quarter of 2022 when we had 938 condos sell for an average sales price of $1,007,225. There were also 772 condos for sale at the end of the first quarter. 

So sales were down an astounding 23.1% with pricing being up 3.7%. Yes, sales plummeted, but inventory was up only 1.9%.

Interesting data points. I am not really seeing how the Boston market is in trouble… But let’s take a look at the second quarter comparison. Because this would include the all important Spring Market sales data.

In the second quarter of 2023, Boston sold 1,137 condos for an average sales price of $1,016,912. And at the end of the second quarter of 2023 there were 887 condos on the market.

This is compared to the second quarter of 2022 when we had 1,634 condos sell for an average sales price of $1,026,560. There were also 1,059 condos for sale at the end of the second quarter. 

Prices went down quarter over quarter in the second quarter of 2023. They were down by .94%. Sales levels were down an astounding 30.4%. But here is what I found really interesting and something that I think made a huge difference in the third quarter… Inventory levels were down by 16.2%!

In the third quarter of 2023, Boston sold 1,058 condos for an average sales price of $1,169,722. And at the end of the third quarter of 2023 there were 958 condos on the market.

This is compared to the third quarter of 2022 when we had 1,162 condos sell for an average sales price of $917,849. There were also 1,045 condos for sale at the end of the third quarter. 

Yes. Prices were down almost one percent in the second quarter, but they were up by 27.4% in the third quarter of 2023. Meanwhile sales levels were down 8.9% with inventory levels being down 8.3% year over year. 

Hmmm, I am not sure where I am seeing that the Boston, MA market is in trouble. But maybe it’s in the fourth quarter data. Now I will admit, this data isn’t complete. But I feel like we have a pretty good picture of where the quarter will end with it being two thirds of the way through the quarter,

Quarter to date in 2023, Boston has sold 375 condos for an average sales price of $1,197,734. With there being 854 condos currently on the market. 

This is compared to the same time period in the fourth quarter of 2022 when we had 459 condos sell for an average sales price of $995,520. And there were 892 condos for sale at the same time in 2022.

This means that the sales levels year over year are down 18.3% while prices were up 23.9%! Meanwhile inventory levels are currently down 4.3% when compared to the same time last year. 

There was a market crash in Boston alright… But that crash was in the sales levels, not pricing levels. Yes, sales levels have crashed, but in no way does that mean that the real estate market in Boston is in trouble.  

Trouble in the Boston market would mean that prices were falling… And that they are not. But let’s just look at the full year over year data for a true comparison on how the market is doing. Go ahead and take a look at all the Commercial Wharf Condos For Sale.

Year to date, sales are down by 21.5%, inventory is down by 4.3% and prices are up by 10.5%. 

Ya, the Boston market isn’t in trouble. Maybe the guy from Maryland should stick to his market or dig into some market stats… But then again, if they did that… Then they wouldn’t be able to harness the panic porn and the wish by a select set of potential buyers that the market is deteriorating. But it is not and the data proves it. 

 

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